The fog of scouting — fuzzy ratings as creative constraint

I used to reload drafts mentally whenever a prospect's range felt "wrong." BGM's fuzziness is actually a gift: it's the closest a spreadsheet game gets to not knowing.

A rule that made me braver

If two scouts disagree by more than one tier, I cannot trade up for that player unless I write a full page arguing why the upside scout is right.

Half the time I discover I'm not arguing about the player — I'm arguing about my own impatience.

Blog angle

Publish the disagreements. Compare your pre-draft paragraph to what happened three seasons later. Sim blogs are at their best when they're longitudinal, not hot takes.

Small list of post ideas from one rookie class

• The guy who peaked early and became trade filler — write the eulogy
• The late bloomer — include the ugly years without skipping them
• The bust you saw coming — be honest about the tells you ignored

If you treat scouting fog as plot, readers will forgive you for being wrong sometimes. They won't forgive you for pretending you were never wrong.